A downward cutting swing and middling rotational athleticism limit Carters offensive impact to the doubles variety, and even though hes young and has a huge, rectangular frame, Carters lack of explosiveness tempers long-term raw power projection here, and we consider him more of a high-floor prospect than a future star. He has a polished first step, actions, and internal clock, and enough arm strength for the left side of the infield. When you consider that Miller lost a lot of developmental time to COVID and being buried on A&Ms depth chart, you can start to get excited about how much potential growth remains for him. His stuff was down in 2022 but is still good, and Rodriguez should be a mid-rotation stalwart in short order. In a bodily sense, he was also unlike any amateur prospect most scouts had ever seen. He generates bigger exit velocity than his size would imply, but because he tends to offer at pitchers pitches, it has resulted in a groundball rate around the 50% mark. RHP AJ Hutcheson The true freshman was lights-out from the bullpen this past week, appearing two times and striking out seven without allowing a hit. The 6-8 righty struck out ten Omaha batters over 6 innings, earning him the win. Previous ranking: No. While he was closer to the 50/55 FV line last offseason, the snapshot of the defensive piece of the puzzle pulls him more comfortably into the 50s for this list cycle, one of many Guardians upper-level middle infielders with the talent to be an everyday player. Even though premium velocity is rare in Japan, Sengas fastball doesnt play like a premium pitch due to its shape and angle. He looked great at the start of the Fall League before pitchers figured out they could get him to chase whatever and started junk-balling him to death. Teams 41-50 Previous ranking: No. You can do some thought exercises around where hed go were Noelvi a 21-year-old draft prospect, or play would you rather with the names of other prospects to try to triangulate where he should fall on the FV scale, and all of that went into placing him here. The visual evaluation of Hassells feel to hit was consistently strong until the last couple months of 2022. He continued to play well as a junior, showing better barrel feel from the left side than he did as a sophomore. He struggles with softer stuff in the bottom of the strike zone, and his in-zone and overall contact rates in 2022 were 78% and 70% respectively, an area similar to Nolan Gorman, Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec and others who have tantalizing power but have sometimes been frustrating big league hitters. At times hes too bold and rushes throws that he should just holster, but Tovar is only the age of a college draft prospect, so details like this will likely tighten up as he matures. Casas spent most of 2022 with Triple-A Worcester and hit .273/.382/.481 there amid a two-month absence to recover from a high ankle sprain. RHP Drew Beam Beam was dominant over the weekend, allowing three hits over six innings and punching out six. Abel has a strong natural proclivity for spinning his breaking stuff, and his low-to-mid-80s slurve is already an above-average pitch and could be a 70-grade shove machine at maturity. After strikeouts were an issue for him in 2021, he narrowed his approach (which is now surgically precise) and began to attack pitches he could damage, avoiding ones on the outer edge of the zone until he has no choice but to put them in play. Alcantara sometimes has trouble turning on hittable fastballs and tends to pepper the right-center field gap, which is an indication he might struggle to catch up to big league heat at all. Brown is the Mewtwo of pitchers, engineered as a facsimile of another powerful entity using science and technology. Hes hit 57 home runs combined the last two years while running sub-30% groundball rates and average launch angles in the 22-25 degree range, both of which are extreme by big league standards. INF Dustin Dickerson Dickerson is part of another experienced lineup for Southern Miss, who have put themselves on the map as a premier mid-major in college baseball. After sitting 94-95 mph in 2021, hes now parked in the 96-98 mph range for entire starts, and his hardest sliders (in the 85-87 mph range) are nearly 10 mph harder than his average curveball was in 2021 (77 mph). He has a big frame, a mature approach, and a left-handed stroke so gorgeous that its now rumored to be dating Pete Davidson. Here's the full schedule and how to watch. Our 36th-ranked draft prospect as a high schooler in 2019, Lee is a switch-hitting shortstop with above-average power who walked nearly twice as often as he struck out as a junior. 55Central MichiganMAC1MI2N/ANRNRNR His patient approach and bat-to-ball skills are enough to make him a high-probability primary backstop. California is now tied with Texas for most teams in the top 100 with 10 apiece. He has some outfield experience but very little in pro ball, and he doesnt exactly look like a fish in water out there. Its possible that aspects of his repertoire will be pared down in relief. He ran a 6.95 ERA in Triple-A throughout 2022 but the hitting environment in Reno isnt fair to pitchers, and Jamesons stuff, control, and athleticism are all on par with a good teams fourth starter. Plus, a Dodgers source indicated to FanGraphs that theyll continue to play Busch at second base despite his issues in the hopes he can develop there. After sustaining an arm injury during spring training, Miller spent most of 2022 rehabbing. A complete prospect and a total baseball rat, Lawlar had been a touted amateur as an underclassman and held serve as a near top-of-the-class talent for two or three years, even amid the volatility of the 2020 draft process. Make no mistake, Brown does not suddenly have Verlanders command. An action-packed week one has come to an end, meaning it's time to release our first Top 25 of the young season. After a breakout 2021 season, Harrison managed to improve in virtually every column of his stat sheet in 2022. The sophomore outfielder was out for all of last season with an injury and is looking to make an impact right away. It was enough for the Yankees to roster him for their postseason series against Houston, who worked Peraza with sink and breaking balls in the bottom of the zone, which he consistently swung over the top of. 9. With just under a month remaining until opening weekend of the 2022 college baseball season, D1Baseball's Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt sat down with us to break down their preseason top 25. LSU lost its first game of the year, but still posted a winning weekend with victories against Kansas State and Sam Houston State. 99NevadaMWC2NV1N/ANRNRNR Catcher Carlos Perez went 4-for-9 and homered twice in the series. By the middle of 2022, Bibee was sitting 95. He is stiff and bulky and not a lock to stay at third for a myriad of reasons. The tools Merrill has in place already make him feel like a high-probability impact player, and if he develops feel for lift without compromising contact as he enters his 20s, then hes going to be one of the top couple of prospects in the minors before he debuts. 30. 3B Brayden Taylor Taylor is already a top draft prospect, with many expecting him to raise his stock throughout the season. It has been tough to truly find out even though Jung is now 25 and has set foot in the big leagues. He produced a 150 wRC+ when healthy and was making among the highest rates of hard, airborne contact in the minors when he got hurt. College Baseball Rankings: 2023 D1Baseball Top Five. However the defensive end of things shakes out for Mead (here he projects in left field for the third straight season), he has enough bat to be an above-average everyday player, combining potent contact, power, and perhaps a newfound sense of the strike zone. Abel has long thrown hard for his age, his velocity steadily climbing into its current 95-97 mph band up from the 90-94 range when he was first known to FanGraphs as a prospect. Hes hovering at or below the big league average in most chase and contact rate categories, while generating impressive power for a shortstop his age. Auburns biggest concern coming out of the weekend is the status of righthander Joseph Gonzalez, who was held out due to shoulder tightness. 55. Berry turned down seven figures coming out of high school and went to Arizona, where he raked as a freshman DH for a Wildcats team that made a deep postseason run. While this might contribute to some of his in-zone and overall swing-and-miss rates (he posted a 77% Z-contact% and 72% overall contact% in 2022, both comfortably below the big league average), Henderson shows plenty of hitterish traits that instill confidence in his 2022 output. His fastball now sits 95-99 mph, up seven ticks from his college days, and while it currently relies heavily on its velocity rather than its below-average shape, a scout we spoke with was optimistic regarding the 22-year-olds ability to continue to improve the offering, singing Graceffos praises when it comes to his work ethic. The following human polls make up the 2022 NCAA Division I men's baseball rankings. 92MercerSoCon1GA4-6867582 The biggest fallers from 2019 are St. Johns (down 46), Minnesota (down 44), Rice (down 43), Illinois (down 34), Cal State Fullerton, California and Kent State (down 29 spots apiece). Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 2023 8:37 AM ET, Park Factors
He turned out to have a stress fracture in his lower back, which the Giants revealed as players reported to camp at the start of 2023. 70), meanwhile, is also 30 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. The area in which its most important for him to show late growth is on defense. Diaz is a bat-first catching prospect close to the big leagues. Drafted out of Wayne State, a Division-II school in Michigan, Browns arm strength and velocity have been sculpted to replicate the power-pitching formula in Houston. Jacksonville March 3-5: (10) MiamiFlorida took care of business with a sweep of Cincinnati, outscoring the Bearcats, 42-16. 64) and Georgia Southern (No. Allens fastball has other traits that help it punch above its weight, and he commands it with machine-like regularity to the locations in which it is most effective. The closest contemporary statistical predecessors and tool-based comps to make for De La Cruz are Willy Adames (a 29% K% hitter who has performed like a 60 because he gets to his power and plays great defense) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (27.6% K%). Even though his stride is relatively conservative, he is still generating so much force with his legs that his back foot will sometimes come completely off the ground as hes making contact, la Bryce Harper. Built like an SEC fullback, the curvaceous lvarez has explosive pull-side power and a good shot to stay behind the plate, which gives him a cathedral ceiling. This years 60 FV tier has some players who still show some hit tool red flags (Chourio, De La Cruz, Jones) that kept them from ever really being considered for the tier above. Jameson reached the majors in 2022 and is ready for prime time. This is the third year were delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which youll see in the position column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. Espino looked like a front-end arm early in 2022, then missed most of the season with knee and shoulder issues, the latter of which (dabs tear ducts) bled into 2023. Auburn this weekend hosts Lipscomb, which is off to a solid start. Best Colleges for Baseball. Defensively, he shows an accurate arm, thwarting 29 would-be basestealers in 2022. An intense, cerebral presence on the mound, Liberatore made his big league debut in 2022, spending the back half of the season shuttling between the Cardinals rotation and Triple-A. He struck out a third of the time and posted an OPS of just .602 before being shut down for the remainder of the season in mid-June. Even though hes still eons from the big leagues, the Cubs were compelled to put Alcantara on their 40-man roster during the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Plus, lvarez isnt nearly as chase-prone as Alfaro and has much more power than Bart, so he should outperform both. 15 Last Week: 1-3 Overall: 3-4, 0-0 in Big Ten (1-2 vs. Top 25) Weekend Record: 1-1 Results Feb. 21: West Virginia: L 8-6 Feb. 24-26: @ (9) Mississippi: W 9-2, L 12-6, L 18-8 (7) Upcoming Feb. 28: Delaware Cambria College Classic (Minneapolis) March 3: vs. (8) Mississippi March 4: vs. (5) Vanderbilt March 5: vs. Hawaii Maryland faced challenging competition throughout the week and went 1-3, losing its home opener against West Virginia before a tough road series loss at Ole Miss. His injuries reduced the sample size, but Merrills contact metrics from the regular season are incredible. And for much of the season, that seemed to be the case: White started the year at High-A, doling out 81 strikeouts against just 19 walks in 58.2 innings of work before being promoted to Double-A Frisco at the end of June. For instance, Marte isnt easy to beat in the strike zone. South Carolina; 45. Then, on the Cape, he hit .295 with four homers in 20 games between the regular season and playoffs. 6 overall and places behind only Phillies righty Andrew Painter among the game's top pitching prospects. Batys swing has made it tough for him to lift the ball in games, but a 2022 tweak may have unleashed the beast. Minor injuries kept Whisenhunt from carrying as heavy a load as he otherwise would have at ECU last season, but he still put up good numbers, including a 3.77 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 62 innings. Having started 2022 with the Yankees Triple-A affiliate, Wesneski was shipped to Chicago as part of the Scott Effross trade. The Diamondbacks selected Pfaadt with their final pick in 2020s abbreviated draft. H: Home. There are still some things to work on here, but Prez is younger now than Trevor Rogers was on the day he was drafted, and the fact that Prez has made relevant adjustments and continued to dominate while implementing them is remarkable. He may just be a DH, which would obviously make it tougher for him to profile, but there may be elite on-base ability here and that plus the power might be enough for Julien to make an impact that way, too. The identifiable visual tweak to the swing, the shift in batted ball profile, and Batys dramatic uptick in home runs are all indications that hes dialed in the details that have kept him vacillating between several FV tiers for the last couple of years. A Massachusetts multi-sport prep standout (he was the Gatorade POY in football as a quarterback, as well as a lauded hockey player), Frelick emerged as a baseball prospect during his freshman season at Boston College when he hit .361/.438/.594 and went 22-for-24 on stolen base attempts in just 35 games. More disappointing though is that the shape of the heater hasnt played the way it was hoped to or how the TrackMan data that came out of his time at Vandy hinted that it might, having lost some of the ghost-like deception that flummoxed opposing college batters. A spindly, undersized athlete with a plus slider and mid-90s fastball, Jameson is on the starter/reliever line as Arizonas big league staff becomes more crowded with viable major leaguers. Its worth developing him at catcher for at least a while since that position is at the very top of the defensive spectrum, and Paradas other seemingly viable positions are at or near the bottom. In 18 at-bats, Vastine slashed .444/.500/.833 with two bombs and a double. He is a fringe receiver and ball-blocker with a 45 arm. Jobe was the consensus top high school arm in the 2021 draft and earned a bonus of nearly $7 million as the third overall pick. Lewis chronic injuries have kept him on this list forever, but were still betting that his tools and personhood will eventually turn him into a good multi-positional big leaguer. 5 after sweeping a road series at then-No. His front side is fairly stiff through contact, which may impact his ability to scoop lower pitches in the future, an issue Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson only had exposed once they reached the big leagues. 61Wright StateHorizon1OH11626880 Southern Miss; 49. Over the last two weeks, we have counted down the top 100 programs in college baseball, as they stand in 2022. A somewhat frustrating blend of exciting elements, Liberatore features a four-pitch mix and each of his offerings is at least average, which presents as an obvious starters foundation. 11 Last Week: 3-1 Overall: 5-2, 0-0 in SEC (1-1 vs. Top 25) Weekend Record: 2-0 Results Feb. 21: Grambling State: W 9-7 Feb. 24-26: Eastern Illinois: W 13-2 (7), W 10-3, L 12-3 Upcoming March 1: Illinois State March 3-5: Wright StateArkansas largely took care of business at home last week and won a series against Eastern Illinois. He gets a lot of swing and miss on his slider, both in and out of the zone, and commands it well. Pitchers tend to be volatile and subject to heightened injury risk, plus their usage is being spread out among more pitchers in the majors, reducing the impact of individuals. Maryland; 39. 96UNC GreensboroSoCon3NC9N/ANRNRNR Blocked by Nolan Arenado, Walker is taking his 70-grade power and arm to right field, where he should hit 35 annual bombs amid lots of strikeouts. He might have to augment his swing to get to all of that power, and the chase component threatens to drag the hit tool down, but guys who hit the ball this often and this hard tend to turn into good big leaguers. Still, hes poised to be a franchise cornerstone for the Orioles looming renaissance. While some of those skills are still bricks in Carrolls baseball-playing foundation, he has developed much more power than even the most optimistic amateur projections. Arizona State; 44. It has been his best in-zone bat misser thanks largely to the breadth of his arsenal. Its still quite the arsenal, its just that the breaking balls arent all 60s and 70s anymore, or at least they werent at the end of 2022. Hes coming off another terrific offensive year, slashing .257/.336/.420 as a 21-year-old at Akron with about a month of Columbus thrown in, and setting a career-high in homers (18) for the second straight season. In fact, his fastball locations are still pretty scattered and his delivery remains quite violent. Parada may not be able to catch, but we think his bat profiles anywhere. 5Oregon StatePac-121OR11688 His frame makes him pretty likely to slow down with age, but as he fills out hell probably grow into elite raw power. Hes already noticeably thicker now than he was in high school, though thats probably part of where the power is coming from. Poised to be a post-2023 40-man add, Flores worked just over 100 innings in 2022. Leiter was wild in his first full season, but we dont want to come off him too severely since he has looked like a solid fourth starter basically every other year hes been on the prospect radar. He walked at hefty 15% clip in June, three times as much as he had to that point in the season, and his strikeout rate barely moved even though he was running deeper counts. He lacks a traditionally projectable frame, but Amador has still gotten stronger over the last year and he flashed more power than expected. There are still visual and underlying statistical indications that Naylor is going to end up with a below-average hit tool (his swing is so uphill that hell almost certainly be vulnerable to whiffs in the strike zone), but he has very impressive bat speed and power (especially for a catcher) that is weaponized by his selective approach, which targets the up-and-in quadrant of the zone. Defensively, lvarez is a bit of a mixed bag. NCAA College Rankings and Polls. With ace Hunter Elliott dealing with some tightness, Rivas will need to step up big for Ole Miss. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff but the injuries make it more likely that Cleveland proactively moves him to the bullpen. His raw power has improved considerably over the last two years, and at age 19, he already has thunderous pull-side pop and is lifting the ball consistently in games. Hes tracking like a mid-rotation starter. Caminero has a big leg kick, loads his hands low, and swings with bloodthirsty effort, with plus bat speed driving big pull-side power. Hernandez has fantastic bat speed and power for a no-doubt shortstop prospect, but he Kd at a concerning rate in 2022. He wasnt considered a lock to stay there before the draft, and pro scouts came away skeptical of his defense in center from Greens post-draft look. 1 team loses in college baseball, as Iowa dominates top-ranked LSU We are still in a holding pattern with Veen because the length of his swing continues to make it very difficult for him to turn on fastballs. Montgomery raked his way to Double-A, where he spent the last couple weeks of his first full pro season as part of Project Birmingham, a de facto instructs and evaluation period for Chicagos best mid- and upper-level prospects. Wood compares to a young Adam Dunn as a power-hitting outfielder of considerable size. Mayers gorgeous left-handed swing produces impact power for a shortstop. The Tigers did their homework and signed him for an over-slot bonus in the fifth round, where many teams had written him off as unsignable. At a time when everyone has a camera in their pocket and the internet exists, its almost impossible for an early-round prospect to be hidden in a true sense, though the 2020 shutdown contributed to Carters lack of notoriety. He actually looks more comfortable and accurate making max-effort throws from deep in the hole than he does when moving toward the first base line. It was exciting that the lanky and projectable Ramirez hit that well as a teenager in full-season ball, though his minuscule walk rate (6.9%), especially during a year when automated balls and strikes seemed to inflate FSL walk rates, was at least a yellow flag. Inside Lacrosse/Women's Coaches Association Top 25 Poll; Women's Field Hockey. His propensity to chase and lunge at pitches nowhere close to the zone led to a 38% K% during his September call-up. There are aspects of his swing that are very exciting and consistent with great big league hitters (his raw power and bat speed are uncommon for a shortstop, while his bent-at-the-waist hitting posture is akin to Mike Trouts and Dylan Crews), but his bat path is fairly grooved, and here the projection is that when the cement dries on Lawlars hit tool, it will be a little south of average. The Diamond Dogs (5-3) claimed their first win against a top-5 ranked opponent since 2004, sending the defending national champions home with their second loss of the season. The Big 12 has three teams and the Pac-12 two, while the American, Big Ten and Sun Belt each have one representative. LHP Xavier Rivas Delaware was no match for Rivas, who struck out eight and allowed just one hit. Rodriguezs arm is comfortably plus. His power on contact is exceptional, and even though his hit tool has looked more average than above as hes traversed the minors, the combination of power and patience here belongs in the heart of a big league order. LHP Nicolas Lopez Lopez was dominant out of the bullpen, picking up the slack for some lackluster outings from Cardinal starters. Just shy of age 21 in 2022, he was a draft-eligible sophomore and somehow improved on an incredible freshman season (.318/.379/.550) by nearly tripling his home run total, walking as often as he Kd and slashing .361/.453/.709 as a soph. His feel for contact has been lauded since he first entered pro ball, while his defensive ability at third and his middling power have kept him in more of a high probability role player bucket here at FanGraphs than in a star-level FV tier despite his on-paper performance. He was suddenly a young-for-the-class college bat who might have gone very high in the draft if hed hit like he had the year before and gotten better at second base. The Orioles selected Ortiz in the fourth round based largely on his defensive prowess, and he has lived up to those expectations while exceeding them on the offensive side. Pro pitchers attacked him with lots of back-foot breaking balls in Colliers brief ACL and instructs run, and while he spotted lots of them and hammered a few that didnt finish, he struggled to touch any that were even close to well-executed. Miami this weekend travels to Gainesville to renew its rivalry with Florida. His arm slot is not as deliberately north/south as before, but his fastball still plays as an in-zone bat-misser because of his angle and carry. Chourio is a hard-swinging center fielder with plus power and speed. Busch has continued his long track record of excellent offensive performance so far in pro ball. C Justin Wilcoxen Wilcoxen is looking to build off of a strong season in 2022 and he is already off to a hot start. The chart below is sortable by state and by conference, which makes it easy to see how all of the Top 100 programs stack up relative to the other teams in their state and league. 8 TCU. His slider often has curt, unspectacular-looking movement, but Bradleys command of it and the way he sets it up with well-located fastballs make it a dominant pitch. Here he stays in the same FV tier as last year but falls within that tier due to his 2022 performance. Gonzaga; 35 Liberty. Simply put, hes one of the most unique offensive threats in the sport. RHP Jack OConnor The 6-5 righty lasted five innings on Saturday, allowing just one hit and striking out seven. ), and this is true of Cartaya in most underlying statistical categories and proprietary stats that attempt to measure power output objectively. Olsons plus secondary stuff helps make him a potential starter even though he doesnt throw strikes with his fastball. Hell work six or more innings and never throw a fastball below 95 mph, sitting 96-98 for the bulk of the outing. A core scouting rule of thumb is to take the long view with catchers who have impact offensive potential. Heres the full conference-by-conference breakdown: ACC (12 of 14 teams landed in the Top 100), Pac-12 (8 of 11), Big Ten (8 of 13), Big 12 (7 of 9), Sun Belt (7 of 14), American (5 of 8), Big West (4 of 9), Conference USA (4 of 8). Hitters seem to take more comfortable swings against his breaking stuff later in outings, so perhaps theres something about Painters fastball angle that makes it easier to see his breaking balls pop out of hand once theyve had a look at them. 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